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Probably42 News - February/March 2024

Welcome to our February Newsletter!

Since our last newsletter our Probably42 discussions have focused on several topics all with a relationship to the next election and the party campaigns. In the most recent discussion we talked about the lack of long-term thinking in Government and what changes were needed to make it happen. We always review our outputs to see if anything is significant enough to be added to our document A Manifesto for Society in the AI Future. On this occasion there was little new to add but it caused us to rewrite and restructure the section on ‘Updating the practice of Democracy and Government for the 21^st century’ to strengthen it and put slightly more emphasis on the long-term. We felt it was worth sharing just the long-term elements of that with you here and asking for your comments and additional suggestions:

Embed long-term and ‘next generation thinking’ in Government

It is easy to argue that our political system has failed us over the last 50 years, in particular in not planning for the long-term or for the next generation, something we can’t afford to do in the AI Society. In the 1960s, young people were led to believe that our standard of living would gradually improve, and that as technology played its part, our working hours would reduce. Instead, this generation faces a situation where some of the basics of life are worse i.e. longer and often more pressured working hours, house prices at unaffordable multiples of salary, reduced pension prospects, and a deteriorating health and social care system.

There are a number of barriers to long-term political thinking including the lack of Kudos in it and short election cycles. As ChatGPT says: ‘Addressing these barriers requires a combination of political will, public awareness, and institutional changes to foster a more conducive environment for long-term thinking and planning. This may involve reforms in governance structures, increased transparency, and efforts to educate the public about the importance of sustainable, long-term policies’. Our proposals include:

Create a ‘Chamber of the Future’ focused on the long-term by replacing half the House of Lords to address the short-termism of politics. This chamber would create both the ‘Vision for the Future’ and the policies required to accelerate, achieve and manage that vision. Members should be drawn from our top scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs and business people.
Create a Vision and Ambition for the next 25 years as both motivation and as an overarching context for all decision-making, supported by the strategies to get us there. It should be formulated by the above Chamber of the Future. Continuous productivity and quality improvement through supporting technology must be a core theme.
Establish associated long-term bodies and mechanisms responsible for future Scenario Planning and associated ‘Society Development’, Preventative and Contingency/Disaster Planning and tackling Root Causes of major issues.
Establish ‘Next Generation Policies’ and ‘Future Generation’ Policies as new terms for talking about some aspects of long-term thinking and planning, to focus minds. Establish time in the Parliamentary timetable for these. Embed these generational terms in all political discourse.
Mandate long-term content of Party Manifestos - Party Manifestos must be mandated to include Vision and Ambition and long-term strategies and policies to get us there; in particular, categorising these appropriately as ‘next generation’ and ‘future generation’ policies.
Establish a National Fund & National Dividend Payment as outlined earlier, so everyone receives benefit from increases in productivity and economic growth over the long-term.
Define Governing for all measures of wellbeing which receive the same prominence as GDP. Three groups: ‘Good of all’ measures, Company contribution measures, Country success measures. Manage against these to constantly improve these measures over the long-term.
Professionalise and embed long-term thinking Establish a ‘long-term thinking in Government’ body to drive long-term thinking and establish a training programme, professional qualification and career structure. Design and carry out a change programme across Government, Civil Service and Public Services to embed long-term thinking alongside the short-term as part of doing a good job. Require all short-term policies to have the context of a longer-term policy. Require all long-term policies to have major and minor milestones and targets with associated ‘annual accountability reporting’. Build a bonus system for Civil servants and Public Services which rewards long-term thinking.
Implement the Vision and Intent of the 5 pillars of the Levelling-Up White Paper. This paper is an excellent piece of work and in many ways is a manifesto for a new UK. In implementing it we need to: put extreme focus on getting the new balance of Central/Local control and implementation right; address historic failings in our implementation capability and speed; take account of the full consequences of Artificial Intelligence over the next 20 years.

If you would like to comment on the above, or put forward your own suggestions, we would very much welcome that and we promise to reply.

Recent Discussions

The outputs of our discussions since the last newsletter are at

Forthcoming Discussions

This month's discussion is: 'How Can Government prevent AI undermining our society, while still reaping the benefits?'

The proposed agenda along with some background information can be seen at Topic for March 2024 - Preventing AI undermining society

Government Information that may interest you

As usual we highlight more examples of information on Parliament activity and outputs which may interest you:

Will it satisfy the courts? Will it stop the boats? UK-Rwanda treaty: provision of an asylum partnership - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) .
An open consultation on A world-class education system: The Advanced British Standard - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) . Note that the consultation is actually being held here A world-class education system: The Advanced British Standard consultation - Department for Education - Citizen Space
The new arrangement regarding the Northern Ireland protocol The Windsor Framework - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
Potential AI developments for the strategic advantage of our Armed Forces Defence Artificial Intelligence (AI) Playbook - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
Further evidence of the Government’s desire to stay at the forefront of AI regulation AI regulation: a pro-innovation approach – policy proposals - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
Strategy and policy statement for energy policy in Great Britain - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) setting out the government’s priorities for energy policy in Great Britain.

Why not join a Group?

If you’d like to join one of the Probably42 discussion groups held via videoconferencing, just email in response to this newsletter and we’ll send you more details. We very much want a diversity of viewpoints, so you can be sure your views will be welcomed. Remember it’s about relaxed discussion and having an enjoyable time, with hopefully some useful ideas identified.

We also want to encourage face-to-face real world discussion groups, as feeders into the main online discussions. If you’d like to find out more about the one in Berkshire, or if you’d like to see one start in your area, just email in response to this newsletter and we’ll send you details.

Feedback

We always welcome any feedback, thoughts, ideas or questions about Probably42. Simply reply to this newsletter and you’ll receive a personal reply.

All the best

Tony