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Probably42 News - January 2021
Progress
Over the last month we’ve been quite prolific in our outputs. We’ve tackled ‘Measuring Wellbeing’, ‘The Levelling Up Agenda’ and ‘Planning for an AI Society’. We give a brief introduction to each below.
Measuring Individual and National Wellbeing
It's a little known fact that the ONS (Office of National Statistics) measures some 40 plus aspects of Wellbeing on an annual basis (see Measures of National Well-being Dashboard). However, national progress today, as portrayed in the media and by politicians, is largely financial, in particular GDP.
We believe the main metrics of national progress should be measures of individual wellbeing of all sectors of the population and measures of the nation as a whole. Within these, we see financial wellbeing as just one of a number of essential elements of wellbeing.
To give this effect we propose that there should be a small number of top-level measures which receive national prominence alongside GDP on an annual basis. In our paper Measuring Individual and National Wellbeing we put forward 7 composite measures of individual wellbeing and 7 composite measures of national wellbeing.
Levelling Up. What is it? Why is it necessary? How should it be done? What counts as success?
Considering that levelling up was a major plank of the election campaign, there has been little since to flesh out exactly what it is. We each have our own view, but most people inherently think that levelling up of the UK’s left behind regions would be a good thing.
This is underpinned by these statistics from the Think Tank Onward: ‘On a wide range of measures the UK is one of the most geographically unbalanced developed economies. In Germany 12% of people live in areas where the average income is 10% below the national average, while in the UK 35% do’.
The success of the Conservatives in last year's General Election and the so-called red wall seats swinging to them, has given them a huge opportunity and incentive to deliver on levelling up in order to hang on to them. Whichever way one voted, such an incentive is a good thing to cause Government action to actually deliver rather than just talk. Our document Election Outcomes set out that opportunity as we saw it at the time.
Despite Covid-19 the government appears committed to the levels of spending required by the levelling up agenda. The Chancellor’s recent Spending Review Spending Review 2020 - GOV.UK puts flesh on the bones of much of this, ‘with more detail to come in the New Year’. It is well worth reading the Executive Summary section and in particular the sections headed:
- Investing in a recovery for all regions of the UK
- Building a stronger future
- Levelling up and the Union
Additionally, the following documents provide a useful backdrop to this topic:
New Onward research: Measuring up for levelling up | ukonward.com Onward are collaborating with the Government’s task force
Publications | The UK2070 Commission which provides links to both the report from the UK2070 Commission and to subsequent papers linked to it The-UK2070-Papers-Series-Two.pdf. These show some extensive thinking which we haven’t yet assessed.
Our document on the subject at Levelling Up - What Why How tackles the questions about Levelling Up: What is it? Why is it necessary? How should it be done? What counts as success?
Planning for an ‘Artificial Intelligence Society’
The immense and transformative opportunities of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are by now well understood. AI can increase the quality of everything we do at the same time as reducing costs, a godsend for both Public and Private Sector. Every aspect of society can improve if we make the right choices, but will we?
It is recognised that there will, over time, be widespread replacement of existing jobs by AI. Some believe this ‘Disruption Scenario’ will be mitigated by creation of new types of jobs, largely based on what happened in the industrial revolution and with computers. Others believe AI is of an entirely different order, because any new jobs will be capable of being performed by AI and we will reach a ‘Tipping Point Scenario’ where there is a net loss of jobs. If that happens work may become a privilege! The estimates of the length of time to that tipping point vary considerably with 20 years often being quoted but even if it is 50 years we need to plan ahead for such far-reaching consequences.
The Tipping Point Scenario would affect and overturn almost every aspect of how we operate our society. So, it is an opportunity to plan what sort of society we want in the future and to choose to take steps now that have a beneficial outcome whatever scenario comes to pass. We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that there are huge positive opportunities from AI at every turn as long as we make good decisions early.
Our paper Planning for an AI Society examines both the Disruption Scenario and Tipping Point Scenario in depth. It identifies issues, unintended consequences and potential ways we can avoid or mitigate them and also looks at the opportunities and what sort of society we might be able to create. It provides some formative thinking to this month’s discussion.
Our January Discussion
Our discussion this month will be on the above topic: The AI Society i.e. one in which AI has become all pervasive.
You can see our suggested Agenda for the topic at Topic for January 2021 - Planning for an AI Society
Do let us know if you would like to participate, or if you have any immediate thoughts on the topic, do just reply to this email and we’ll input them into our discussions. Probably42 is all about making use of our joint Knowledge, Skills and Experience to come up with new ideas, so please don’t hold back.
Why not join a Group?
If you’d like to join one of the groups, just email in response to this newsletter and we’ll send you more details. We very much want a diversity of viewpoints, so you can be sure your views will be welcomed. Remember it’s about relaxed discussion and having an enjoyable time, with hopefully some useful ideas identified as an added bonus.
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All the best
Tony