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Topic for December 2023 - Election Impact of Reform UK
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What impact will Reform UK have on the 2024 general election?
Background:
Richard Tice, the party leader of UK Reform, had a platform on the Laura Kuenssberg show recently as part of the panel. In addition, there seems to have been more media coverage of them ahead of the next election, after a long period with little media attention, apart from some related to local elections e.g. Prepare for this general election to be the most toxic ever, thanks to Farage and Reform UK | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian
They’ve re-branded as ‘Reform UK : the Brexit party’; tag line ‘Fixing a Broken Britain’.
Agenda
- What are our initial thoughts about Reform UK as a political force?
- What do we know about their proposed policy platform? What do we know about their leader Richard Tice and their MP selection process? Are they a ‘populist party’?
- Their policies are eye-catching. How feasible are they? Should other parties adopt any of them?
- Will their wider policy platform, compared to the Brexit Party, give them more credibility?
- Will the reintroduction of Brexit into the party title help or hinder them? Are we destined to re-run the Brexit debate?
- What role will Nigel Farage have and what will be the impact of his involvement?
- Is the right-wing drift seen in other European countries going to play a part in the UK?
- Why has populism got a bad name?
- Will they be a divisive force in the country, adding to confrontational debate?
- Will Social Media help them?
- What main themes do we think the next election will be fought on e.g. immigration, cost of living, housing? What themes do we think it should be fought on?
- Who do we think they will take votes from? Will they lock in a Labour win? Could they gain significant representation in Parliament? Could they even hold the balance of power in a Coalition Government? How will the ‘red wall’ react to them? Would they be a disruptive element in Parliament?
- How will/should other parties react to them?
- Will disillusionment with politicians play a part? Is the establishment as tarnished as politicians? Do we have a problem with democracy itself in a disinformation society?
- Do any of them have the recipe to get the country, with problems everywhere you look, back on track? Is there any way we can get the country back on track?
- Is there any way we can get more considered debate into the election process?
Useful Information
In answer to the question in the title, Bing said
Reform UK, a political party in the United Kingdom, has announced that it will field a candidate against every Conservative in the next general election, which is expected to be held in 20241. The party’s leader, Richard Tice, has ruled out a 2019-style deal with the Conservatives, even if they back some of his party’s policies1. Reform UK has already put up 600 candidates and plans to stand in every seat outside Northern Ireland1. The party’s policies include an increase in the starting rate for income tax from £12,570 to £20,000, efforts to get people off out-of-work benefits, and policies to assist the NHS, including a period in which frontline staff would pay no income tax1.
It is difficult to predict the exact impact that Reform UK will have on the 2024 General Election. However, if the party were to take up to 8% of votes, as polling indicates it could, the bulk of these would come from disgruntled Conservative voters, a demographic the relaunch squarely targeted1.
Please note that the information provided is current as of November 28, 2023, and is subject to change.
Policies of Reform UK are on their web site Reform_is_Essential_-_5Oct23.pdf (nationbuilder.com). It has some pretty dramatic promises! It is also slightly out of date as it still mentions scrapping HS2. The overall web site is at: Reform UK (reformparty.uk)
27 Nov Opinion Poll on how people will vote at the next General Election Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
Labour 44%
Conservative 28%
Lib Dems 11%
Reform UK 8%
Green Party 5%
SNP 3%
Note that the polls listed on Wikipedia vary quite considerably some have Reform UK as high as 10% and some have the Conservatives as low as 21%. .
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The output of our discussions on this topic are now available at Reform UK Impact on 2024 General Election