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Topic for September 2024 - Immigration
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Immigration – Addressing the UK’s Net Migration Volume and Control Problems
This discussion is set in the context of our previous discussions on Population Growth, Immigration, Land Usage and the Environment. The discussion is focused very much on the change of approach as a result of a new Government and how we develop a credible operational approach having foregone a Rwanda-type solution to illegal immigration.
Agenda
What are our current feelings about net migration volumes and their control?
Why is overall population growth seen as a problem? What are the projections for population growth? What are the likely impacts short-term and long-term. Is the UK different from other countries?
Why has the volume of net migration been such a major issue in the UK? What is its impact on population growth? Should we have targets and if so what should they now be?
What types of immigration are there e.g. students, short-term workers, workers eligible for permanent residency, asylum seekers, illegal immigrants caught, illegal immigrants not caught? Should each type be treated differently in terms of volume and controls?
Do we have the right control mechanisms for all these types of immigration? Are they working in practice?
How do we deter, recognise and stop illegal immigration? How do we stop it from growing as we retain our attractiveness, or become even more attractive, as a destination?
What previously publicised ideas could contribute to a cost-effective solution?
How can we deter people from taking illegal routes?
Are there ‘out of the box’ ideas that could contribute or get at root causes?
Are there international solutions in short or long-term?
Useful facts and figures
Based on 2018 ONS National population projections used in issue 3.3 of our document on Population: the population of the UK was projected to increase from an estimated 66.4 million in mid-2018, to 69.4 million in mid-2028, reaching 72.4 million by mid-2043 (the equivalent of around 23 Milton Keynes).
Based on the latest 2021 interim ONS National population projections: the UK population, which was estimated to be 67.0 million in mid-2021, is projected to rise by 6.6 million to 73.7 million over the next 15 years to mid-2036 (a 9.9% increase); (the equivalent of around 25 Milton Keynes).
- Note the above 2018 projection of 72.4 million by mid-2043 has become 73.7 million by mid-2036.
The above projections includes 541,000 more births than deaths, and net international migration of 6.1 million people. The UK population is projected to reach 70 million by mid-2026; this growth is faster than in the 2020-based projections released in January 2023 with the projected increase mainly resulting from international migration.
Drivers of Population Growth
During the period between mid-2021 and mid-2036, the ONS projections for the UK as a whole suggest:
- 10.8 million people will be born
- 10.3 million people will die
- 13.7 million people will immigrate long term to the UK
- 7.6 million people will emigrate long term from the UK
This means that of the projected 6.6 million increase in the total population, 0.5 million (8.2% of the total projected increase) is projected to result from the higher number of births than deaths, and 6.1 million (91.8% of the total projected increase) is projected to result from net international migration.
Although birth rate has gradually decreased (fertility rate was 1.7 children per woman according to ONS 2018 and projected to be 1.59 in 2045), longevity has increased substantially, so we still have a natural population growth. Longevity is likely to go on increasing due to scientific advances, so will provide on-going pressure on population numbers.
Some key facts and figures about illegal immigration in the UK from Microsoft Copilot (based on BBC and gov.uk information):
- Population Estimates: As of 2023, there were an estimated 800,000 to 1.2 million unauthorized immigrants living in the UK1.
- Irregular Migration: In the year ending June 2023, there were 52,530 irregular migrants detected entering the UK, an increase of 17% from the previous year2. About 85% of these arrivals were via small boats2.
- Asylum Seekers: The UK saw a significant number of asylum seekers, with a backlog of over 100,000 cases as of April 20243.
- Enforcement Actions: The Home Office conducted 6,720 illegal working visits in the 12 months to March 2024, a 59% increase from the previous year3.
- Returns: There were 26,027 returns in the 12 months ending March 2024, marking a 55% increase from the previous year3.
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The results of our discussions on this topic can now be seen at: Immigration - Addressing the UK’s Net Migration Volume and Control Problems