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Topic for September - Irregular and Illegal Immigration
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Irregular and Illegal Immigration – Searching for Solutions
Illegal immigration is very much in the news at the moment. Although we discussed migration generally last October, we feel it would be timely to specifically discuss illegal/irregular migration again. All with a view to putting forward a paper to Government with our alternative proposals for addressing the problem, in both long-term and short-term.
We’ve also included some useful facts, courtesy of ChatGPT, to help underpin the discussion.
Agenda
- Why is it a problem? What types of illegal immigration are there? What are the root cause issues underlying our illegal immigration problem? Are there likely to be additional future issues? Which of these issues are soluble?
- What are the differences between Asylum, Resettlement schemes and humanitarian visas? What does the UNHCR do?
- What political proposals from each party have been tried, are on the table now, or suggested for the future? What do we think of the viability of each of these? Can we learn anything from their limitations?
- Have other European countries got the same problem? What are they doing to tackle it?
- What new ideas do we have for a long-term solution? What do we think of our current proposals, can we improve them or refine them, or add to them, in any way?
- Are any of these also short-term solutions? If not what other temporary arrangements could be put in place?
- What will be the consequences of failing to adequately solve the illegal immigration problem to the satisfaction of the majority of the population?
Useful facts – Courtesy of ChatGPT
International refugee law: 1951 UN Refugee Convention (and its 1967 Protocol) – UK is a signatory.
UK asylum law has been built around this convention. The Immigration Rules only allow someone to lodge an asylum claim once physically present in the UK (or at the border, e.g. at a port of entry).
There’s no general legal mechanism to apply for asylum from outside the UK. (There are a few exceptions, like specific resettlement schemes run by the UNHCR in partnership with the UK, but those are discretionary humanitarian programmes, not a legal right to claim asylum remotely.)
Legal baseline – no opt-out
- Under the Refugee Convention, a country cannot simply say “we’re full” and turn people away at the border. There are no quotas.
- Every asylum seeker who arrives must have their claim considered individually.
- Refusing entry solely on the basis of capacity would breach non-refoulement (the duty not to return people to danger).
There is no illegal way to claim asylum: under the Refugee Convention, people can apply regardless of how they arrived. The term “illegal immigration” generally applies to those who remain in the country without status after refusal. However, irregular entry routes (e.g. small boats across the Channel) dominate public debate because they bypass visa and border systems.
In the UK (and most countries bound by the Refugee Convention), to be granted asylum you must meet a fairly high but clearly defined legal test. In simple terms, you must show that you are a refugee under the 1951 Convention. That means proving:
- Who you are
- Well-founded fear of persecution. Persecution normally means serious harm
- Persecution must be for one of five reasons recognised in the Refugee Convention: Race, Religion, Nationality, Political opinion, Membership of a particular social group e.g. LGBTQ+
- Home state can’t/won’t protect you
- No internal alternative i.e. relocate to another part of own country
- Exclusion clauses e.g. committed a serious non-political crime, danger to UK security
- Standard of proof – the threshold is relatively low e.g. you don’t need to prove persecution is certain, only that there is a “reasonable degree of likelihood”
If granted asylum: you usually receive refugee status, currently with 5 years’ leave to remain in the UK, after which you can apply for settlement.
If refused asylum but at risk of serious harm for other reasons (e.g. risk of death penalty, torture, inhuman treatment), you may still get humanitarian protection under UK law.
Asylum decisions are not just about checking documents. They require assessing:
- The applicant’s credibility (do they seem truthful? consistent?).
- Contextual country evidence
- Nuanced interpretation of the Refugee Convention and case law.
These are highly fact-sensitive, narrative-driven, and context-rich assessments.
Some countries use alternative legal routes e.g. re-settlement schemes working with UNHCR and Humanitarian visas (allowing people to travel legally to claim asylum). The UK has some crisis specific resettlement schemes e.g. Ukraine, Afghanistan, Hong Kong and some general schemes with the UNHCR. The UK doesn’t use humanitarian visas – these are politically controversial (perceived as “opening the floodgates”). The EU is debating creating an EU-wide humanitarian visa.
The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) signed by the UK in 1950, is applied in the UK through the Human Rights Act. It is central to immigration debates because it sets absolute limits on what the state can do. In particular, Article 3 prohibits deporting or removing people to places where they face torture, inhuman treatment or death, and Article 8 protects family life in certain deportation cases. These provisions underpin many legal challenges to removals, including the Rwanda scheme. The political argument is that ECHR obligations restrict sovereignty and make it harder for governments to control migration.
Some statistics
A record 8.4 million asylum applications were registered globally in 2024—a 22% increase from the previous year, driven by rising conflict and displacement.
108,138 people claimed asylum in the UK in 2024, which was 18% more than in 2023 and 5% more than the previous recorded peak of 103,081 in 2002. In 2024, 84,231 claimants were main applicants and 23,907 were dependants. Source: How many people claim asylum in the UK? - GOV.UK
There were 49,000 irregular arrivals detected in the year ending June 2025, 27% more than the previous year. Small boat arrivals accounted for 43,000 (88%) of the total irregular arrivals in the year ending June 2025, 38% more arrivals than the previous year but slightly fewer than the peak in 2022 (46,000). Afghans were the most common nationality amongst small boat arrivals in the year ending June 2025, accounting for 15% of small boat arrivals (6,400).
There were 62,000 grants of leave offered via safe and legal (humanitarian) routes to come to, or remain in, the UK in the year ending June 2025, 33% fewer than the previous year, largely due to the reduction in visas and extensions granted on the Ukraine Scheme.
To put all these numbers in context see Summary of latest statistics - GOV.UK.
There is also undetected illegal immigration. ChatGPT provided the following table:
Summary Table: Undocumented Migrant Estimates (UK)
Source
Estimated Undocumented Population
Caveats / Notes
Pew Research Center (2019)
800,000 – 1,200,000 (2017)
Methodological issues; rejected by analysts Wikipedia+3Full Fact+3Reddit+3
Greater London Authority (2020)
594,000 – 745,000 (London only, 2017)
Regional estimate, narrower scope Sky News
LSE Study (c.2009)
417,000 – 863,000 (incl. UK-born kids)
Broader historical estimate Sky News
YouGov Summary (2025)
120,000 – 1.3 million
Reflects contested and uncertain range YouGovThe Times
This post was edited by # Probably42 at September 22, 2025 2:25 PM BST -
The output of these discussions is now available at: